Category Archives: NFL

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

Among other reasons, the Cincinnati Bengals are big favorites against the Miami Dolphins due to their track record of avoiding extending losing streaks.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The Bengals are listed as 7.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins, with a total of 45 points, for the two 1-2 teams’ Thursday Night Football betting matchup. Cincinnati is a -360 moneyline favorite, while Miami is a +280 underdog on those odds.

Cincinnati, which is coming off losses against the Pittsburgh Steelers, is 5-0 both straight-up and against the spread in its last five games after consecutive losses. The biggest concern about the Bengals is whether their offensive line, which has already allowed 12 sacks, will be able to protect QB Andy Dalton.

Week 3 Monday Night Football Betting Preview

A tight point spread is often daunting for Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who host the Atlanta Falcons in a potential Monday Night Football scoring battle to wrap up Week 3 of the NFL season.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

New Orleans is listed as a three-point favorite on the betting lines, with a total of 53.5, which is the highest of the week.

The Saints are 2-3 straight-up and 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite of three or fewer points. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last five NFC South games, and has a good chance of getting RB Mark Ingram going since the Falcons and rookie MLB Deion Jones are allowing 4.6 yards per rushing attempt.

Week 3 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will try to capitalize on the Chicago Bears being shorthanded and get above .500 in a compelling Sunday Night Football betting matchup. The Cowboys are seven-point favorites against the Bears – who face a choice about whether to have QB Jay Cutler play with a sprained thumb – with a total of 44.5.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

The scenario – no Cutler, and star Bears WR Alshon Jeffery (knee) possibly limited – seems tailor-made for Dallas, which is off to a 1-1 start. However, the Cowboys are only 2-10-2 against the spread in their last 14 home games at AT&T Stadium. They are 9-1 straight-up and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games where they were favored by at least 6.5 points.

The visiting team is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3 – Is Anyone Better Than The Pats?

We’re prepping for week 3 of the season and one thing has become brazenly apparent already: teams aren’t very good this year. Want to know how I know this? The best team in the league doesn’t even have their two best players active right now and the rest of them just experienced some pretty serious injuries and have no threats to their statusPAt in the elite class.

I promise that the rankings get sorted by Week 4 but until then we have to carry some biases that will inevitably impact how we wager. Remember that all rankings are based on performance in real life and in gambling life, so a team like Seattle which isn’t covering (or playing well) will get dropped despite reputation. As for the rest, you’ll have to read on to find out.

1. New England Patriots (2-0 SU and ATS)

I really don’t know who else to put in this slot. The Patriots have looked outstanding without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and they’ve still managed to score an average of 27.0 points. Make an argument for another team that looks better than New England right now, and will only get better in two weeks time. You can’t.

FanDuel changes ad strategy for NFL 2016

Unlike in the 2015 National Football League (NFL), American football fans will see less of daily fantasy sports (DFS) operator FanDuel’s advertisements this season.

Realizing that they have overdone the bombardment of ads last year, Business Insider reported that FanDuel is changing its advertising strategy this NFL season.

Though their last year’s blitzkrieg of advertising helped raise people’s awareness on the company, FanDuel Chief Executive Officer Nigel Eccles finds their last year’s marketing strategy to be regrettable and narrow as it focuses more on the money.

“What I would say about last year was that [the commercials were] really driving awareness. Prior to last season very few people had heard of us, so we really wanted to get out there and get people to know us. That was successful — maybe too successful,” Eccles told the business news website. “I think last year we probably focused too much on money,” Eccles said. “I think we probably were too narrow in what we were marketing.”

NFL Betting: Don’t Rush To Your Doom

Every NFL betting season is like a new relationship. There are some familiar names and faces around, but it’s a fresh start. We all know this, especially if you’re a veteran to gambling on this sport. If you’re blowing through your wallet in the first handful of weeks of the season, you’re doing it wrong.

What you should be doing is assessing what the league actually looks like. And that means being open minded to changing your perspective. The league evolves and grows with its talent and rule changes. You have to as well.

That’s never been more apparent than in the slippery slope we’re seeing out of rushing offences in the NFL. It’s ugly…and sadly it’s getting worse. Want proof, just look at the list of characters who led the league in rushing during Week 1.

Legal sports betting would goose NFL TV ratings: Nielsen survey

Legal sports betting could add a serious boost to the National Football League’s TV ratings, according to new Nielsen data.

On Thursday, the American Gaming Association (AGA) released the findings of an AGA-commissioned Nielsen Sports survey into the relationship between NFL regular season viewing and sports betting. The survey queried 1,000 US adults along with 500 “pre-qualified NFL bettors” to ensure proper samples.

Nielsen found that bettors watched 19 more NFL games during the 2015 season than non-bettors. Sports bettors made up one-quarter of the total 2015 regular season audience but claimed 47% of all minutes viewed. On average, bettors watched 11 more minutes per game than non-bettors.

Nielsen estimated that the advent of legal sports betting in the US would raise the number of NFL regular season viewers who bet on sports to jump from 40m to 57m. Legal sports betting would result in bettors comprising 36% of the NFL viewing audience and consuming 56% of all minutes viewed.

NFL Power Rankings – Preseason Primer Edition

You know what I hate? I hate boring blurbs in power rankings. “Denver lost a close one last weekend. Hopefully they can do better next week.” Thanks for coming out, Joe Sportswriter. I really appreciate the hard work you put in.

Instead, I’ve cobbled together my own version of the NFL Power Rankings where I basically scream and TYPE YELL about all the things I love and hate about what’s happening in the league. It’s more fun for me to write an opinionated rankings piece, and (hopefully) more entertaining for you to read.

Plus, you might learn something!

So a couple introductions on how this whole thing works:

NFL Power Rankings – Preseason Primer Edition

You know what I hate? I hate boring blurbs in power rankings. “Denver lost a close one last weekend. Hopefully they can do better next week.” Thanks for coming out, Joe Sportswriter. I really appreciate the hard work you put in.

Instead, I’ve cobbled together my own version of the NFL Power Rankings where I basically scream and TYPE YELL about all the things I love and hate about what’s happening in the league. It’s more fun for me to write an opinionated rankings piece, and (hopefully) more entertaining for you to read.

Plus, you might learn something!

So a couple introductions on how this whole thing works:

NFC South Futures, Reviews, and 2016 Outlooks

The defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers enter the 2016-2017 season as prohibitive favorites to repeat. According to NFL betting odds at Bodog, the other three NFC South teams are all equally valued in regards to future odds, and even then they’re a distant second in comparison to Carolina.

• Carolina Panthers -240

• Atlanta Falcons +650

• New Orleans Saints +650

NFC South Futures, Reviews, and 2016 Outlooks

The defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers enter the 2016-2017 season as prohibitive favorites to repeat. According to NFL betting odds at Bodog, the other three NFC South teams are all equally valued in regards to future odds, and even then they’re a distant second in comparison to Carolina.

• Carolina Panthers -240

• Atlanta Falcons +650

• New Orleans Saints +650

Two Las Vegas Sportsbook Stocks To Buy Before NFL Kickoff

With the NFL season about to kick off, Las Vegas sportsbooks are about to get a nice revenue bump. Just like the situation with the English Premier League in the UK though, trades or long term positions should not be made based solely on seasonal trends that the entire market is already aware of. If we may hark back to a 1995 episode of The Simpsons when Homer invests in pumpkins in October and singes a one dollar bill to light a cheap cigar in celebration of his notional gains, markets don’t really work that way. The question really is whether the bump that sportsbooks will get due to the NFL season will be more or less than what the market expects.

My hunch is that it will be more, and here’s why. Though some Las Vegas firms have shown some tentative signs of weakness, particularly MGM in its last quarterly report on shrinking volumes, it is likely that this is only a temporary downturn due to seasonally shrinking dollar supply growth that generally happens around July and August, as those who read CalvinAyre are well aware of by now. That downturn is now over and done with, and the quarterly trough this year was about 3 times higher than the quarterly trough last year, which ended up causing the August 24th, 2015 market crash. There is very little chance of that happening now, barring some kind of political or natural disaster in the US like an Earthquake in Las Vegas or something, or a financial disaster in Europe that could come at any time. Assuming none of that will happen until after this year’s Super Bowl, we have a green light to go back in to Las Vegas stocks, particularly ones with sportsbook revenues.

The NFL season is fortuitously blessed to be in synch with seasonal money supply expansion trends. It starts in September and ends in early February, precisely when dollars are multiplying at their fastest seasonal rate. This year, given that the trough in dollar supply expansion was much higher than in 2015, we have a considerable head start to this year’s trek back up. We could even get to double digit expansion by January in the thick of the playoffs, which would really fuel stock prices much higher. People will have more money in their pockets that they will use to bet on games, among other things. The US remains at full employment and will probably stay there by the end of the NFL season, consumer spending keeps going higher, and “everything is awesome” for now, as they say. It won’t be awesome perpetually, but for now it is.

Buy at a high?

NFL Betting: AFC South Preview

The South was unequivocally a worst of the four AFC divisions last season. The four teams combined to go a dismal 25-39 (.391). Houston won the division title with an uninspiring 9-7 record. They were able to accomplish it by going 5-1 within the division. Houston went on to get crushed at home by Kansas City 30-0 during its lone playoff game. Tennessee and Jacksonville have been bottom feeders in each of the last two seasons, evidenced by their cumulative record of 13-51 (.203) over that course of time. I look for both of those teams to be substantially improved in 2016. Then again, they have nowhere to go but up based on their recent futility.

Odds to Win AFC South

• Indianapolis Colts (+140)

• Houston Texans (+190)

NFL Betting – AFC West Preview

AFC West Preview

The AFC West has the look of a very competitive division for this upcoming season. Denver won’t only be looking to repeat as division winners, but are also the defending world champions. Kansas City will be out to make the playoffs for the third time in four years under veteran head coach Andy Reid. Oakland seems to be a consensus pick as a playoff sleeper, and that’s usually a curse instead of the alternative. Head coach Mike McCoy and his Chargers will try avoid missing the playoffs for a 3rd consecutive season, and prove last year’s 4-12 record was a fluke.

2017 Futures Odds to Win AFC West

Denver Broncos (+190)

NFL Betting: AFC North Preview

I’ve already alluded to the AFC East being arguably the strongest division in football from top to bottom. If not for Cleveland, a similar case could’ve made for the AFC North.

The head coaching stability among the top three teams in this division speaks volumes. John Harbaugh enters his 9th year with Baltimore, Mike Tomlin his 10th in Pittsburgh, and Marvin Lewis of Cincinnati will embark on his 14th season.

The antithesis of that kind of permanency relates to the Cleveland Browns organization. Mike Pettine was let go after last season’s brutal 3-13 campaign. That decision prompted the hiring of former Cincinnati Bengal offensive coordinator and Oakland Raiders head coach Hue Jackson. He’ll be Cleveland’s sixth different head coach since 2008. Saying the situation in Cleveland over the past nine years has been dysfunctional would be a vast understatement.

AFC North Champion Futures Odds

NFL Betting: AFC East Preview

The AFC East will be arguably the best division in football this season from top to bottom. New England is once again the clear cut favorite, despite having to be without star quarterback Tom Brady (suspension) for their first four games. It should otherwise be competitively balanced regarding the other three teams. The Bills (8-8), Dolphins (6-10), and Jets (10-6) combined to go 24-24 last year. You can certainly make a strong case for either the Jets or Bills as a possible playoff team. Miami should improve upon last year’s disappointing 6-10 finish with new head coach Adam Gase in charge.

Futures Betting Odds on AFC East Division Winner

Patriots (-220)

Bills (+550)

Oh, the irony: Is money-making juggernaut NFL fearing sports betting’s shadow?

Just when two of the big three American sports leagues – the NBA and MLB – have warmed up to the idea of US sports betting in the future, money-making enterprise NFL is having cold feet about jumping on the bandwagon.

Yahoo! Finance reported that the NFL is not rushing to join calls for the legalization of sports betting in the US, as it expresses their apprehension on how legalized gambling would affect the football games itself.

The NFL, known for being tight-lipped on all issues, gave a hint of its position on legalized sports betting through its senior labor relations counsel Brook Gardiner, who spoke at the 30th annual National Conference on Problem Gambling, in Tarrytown, New York.

Gardiner expressed fear that the integrity of the sport will be compromised should NFL throws its support for the legalization of sports betting.

Who will be the next starting quarterback for the Broncos?

The Denver Broncos have a major hole to fill at quarterback as Peyton Manning retires to golf and Brock Osweiler goes for the money in Houston.

The annual NFL free agency frenzy has just begun Wednesday, but it’s never too early to see some significant moves. Osweiler, drafted and groomed to succeed Manning, has agreed to sign a hefty four-year, $72 million deal with the Houston Texans, with $37 million guaranteed.

Apparently, the move was not much of a surprise when the Broncos didn’t hear back from Osweiler several days after they tabled their original offer. But since Osweiler was an offseason priority after the Super Bowl 50 victory,  Denver made a strong push to keep him and increased its bid to four-year, $64 million deal with more than $30 million. But it didn’t work.

It looks like money, although a big factor, wasn’t the only reason why Osweiler chose to leave Denver. Osweiler was benched in the 17th week and while he did most of the heavy lifting on offense to put the Broncos in the playoffs, the team stuck with Manning until the end of the season. With any luck, the Texans would be the team that finally lets him prove his worth.

Who will be the next starting quarterback for the Broncos?

The Denver Broncos have a major hole to fill at quarterback as Peyton Manning retires to golf and Brock Osweiler goes for the money in Houston.

The annual NFL free agency frenzy has just begun Wednesday, but it’s never too early to see some significant moves. Osweiler, drafted and groomed to succeed Manning, has agreed to sign a hefty four-year, $72 million deal with the Houston Texans, with $37 million guaranteed.

Apparently, the move was not much of a surprise when the Broncos didn’t hear back from Osweiler several days after they tabled their original offer. But since Osweiler was an offseason priority after the Super Bowl 50 victory,  Denver made a strong push to keep him and increased its bid to four-year, $64 million deal with more than $30 million. But it didn’t work.

It looks like money, although a big factor, wasn’t the only reason why Osweiler chose to leave Denver. Osweiler was benched in the 17th week and while he did most of the heavy lifting on offense to put the Broncos in the playoffs, the team stuck with Manning until the end of the season. With any luck, the Texans would be the team that finally lets him prove his worth.

Tony Romo’s fantasy firm tackled for a loss in lawsuit against the NFL

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo’s fantasy football lawsuit against the National Football League took a real life hit on Monday after a judge dismissed one of his claims.

On Monday, Judge Carl Ginsberg dismissed Romo’s claim of tortious interference by the NFL in last year’s cancellation of the National Fantasy Football Convention (NFFC). Romo’s claims for breach of contract and estoppel (aka legal hypocrisy) are still hoping to reach a trial by jury.

The NFFC was scheduled to take place last July at the Sands Expo, a convention center associated with Las Vegas Sands’ Venetian Resort Hotel Casino in Las Vegas. Romo, who own a piece of the show’s organizer, The Fan Expo LLC, was set to appear at the NFFC along with a number of other current NFL players.

But the NFL intervened one month before the event was supposed to take place, threatening those players set to attend that they would be in violation of the league’s anti-gambling policy, which prohibits players from participating in events held at or sponsored by casinos.