Et Tu, Junior Creditore? Then Fall Caesars

If you have inside information with judges and you know exactly how they are going to rule on the many appeals left in the Caesars court drama, then you can make a lot of money trading weekly Caesars options. But if you don’t, I’d say stay away and let the volatility be someone else’s game. Trading Caesars now would be, alas, gambling, a sort of four-dimensional hypercube of metagambling. Gambling on gambling.

Those who went short Caesars last September at $12.50 with 2016 LEAPS are still in the money with three months to go. If you haven’t covered yet, now’s the time. Aside from risking some pocket change on highly leveraged 2017 puts, which could be fun, there is no sense in trying to guess how a line of judges will decide each new detail of this case. There are still a lot more decisions to be made here. Each and every one will have an oversized effect on Caesars’ share price. It will be like trading binary options, which is a fool’s game.

Caesars’ defense, as far as I can tell, is basically the 2008 meltdown cataclysm defense that Wall Street banks and government sponsored entities used to get their hands on $700 billion of taxpayer TARP money and foreign banks used to get $16 trillion of clandestinely printed Federal Reserve money sprinkled all over the world. One would think they could just use the inflation to pay off the national debt instead, but that would make price inflation very obvious as all the dollars would pour into the US economy. So better to hand it out to foreign central banks.

Anyway, that multi trillion dollar display of outrageous profligacy without even having to answer to a single judge really puts the whole Caesars fiasco into perspective. Depending on how you want to count it, the most generous ratio we can give when comparing the 2008 bailouts to Caesars is 770:1, if we are counting Caesars’ entire $23 billion debt load, most of which is no longer even on the parent company’s balance sheet. So on the one hand, we have seen bailouts orders of magnitude larger than what Caesars needs to survive. As of last Friday, they are arguing over a $225 million interest payment. (If you want an entirely new perspective on how $16 trillion compares with $225 million, watch this video.)