Last train leaving out of EU, Take it to Russia

Another day, another crack in the Eurozone and European Union. Italy voted to reject a constitutional reform proposed by its Premier, now resigned, Matteo Renzi, by a whopping landslide 60-40%. Regardless of the technocratic babble involved in the proposal, it was basically designed to centralize power so Renzi could pass more laws more easily. It’s hard to get anyone to agree, or in this case disagree, on anything by such a massive margin, but what is even more interesting is the systematic errors by pollsters exposed. At most, Italian polls had ‘No’ winning by 55-45%. It was the same with Brexit and with the Trump victory. Pollsters had it all wrong. The tide is clearly anti Euro and will not reverse any time soon. The Eurozone and the entire EU is on borrowed time, not because anything will necessarily happen in the political realm, but because Europeans are simply not for it anymore.

The end will probably not be triggered by any specific political outcome whether top-down or bottom-up, but rather by bond yields. In other words, not by sentiment, but by market necessity.

The fact that Italian stocks did not crash yesterday and that the Euro bounced higher after initially falling, is a gift for anyone who owns European stocks with reliance on Eurozone markets who has yet to sell any stake. For gaming, these include principally William Hill, Amaya, and NetEnt, which doesn’t have big business in Italy yet but is actively investing there. This also includes stocks like GVC, which finally looks to have topped back in October.

Gaming stocks that should be owned right now are American and British companies with little Eurozone business. Because of the Brexit vote, even though the United Kingdom may not actually end up leaving in practice, investors are likely see the UK as relatively insulated and European capital will probably leak there for safety. This should do well for 888, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power Betfair and others, with the exception of William Hill which may get itself involved with Amaya and have too much reliance on the Eurozone.