Macau May Have Bottomed, But Good Luck Growing From Here

Word is spreading that Macau may have finally bottomed out. In terms of top line gross gaming revenue, that may be.  Monthly gross gaming revenue for February came out to MOP$19.52 billion, down only 0.1% from January, so essentially flat. In terms of investing money in Macau, that’s a whole different matter, even assuming revenues have finally bottomed. Two things need to be kept in mind. First, this chart of annual gaming revenue in Macau going back to 2007 shows that from 2007 through 2008 and up until 2013, there was always annual revenue growth in Macau. That does not mean by any stretch of the imagination that you wanted to be holding Macau stocks in 2007 through to 2009.

Some of the more extreme examples why not:

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – Lost over 99% from 2007 highs to 2009 lows, still 64% below 2007 highs

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) – Lost 91.5% from 2007 highs to 2009 lows, still 50% below 2007 highs