NagaCorp Remains a Risky Investment for Income Only

Back in May when I last covered Nagacorp, the stock was trading at $5.73 on the Hong Kong exchange. I had said the following:

Cambodia’s NagaCorp is slowly growing its VIP segment, quite nicely in fact, with fundamentals improving largely due to the Macau situation. But if you’re looking for quick sustained gains, Cambodia is not the best choice. An investment in NagaCorp should only be taken with 2020 in mind, scaled in slowly on down days. Try to get a good price and buy the dips. Don’t go chasing… scale in on down days you can aim for a breakeven year in terms of capital growth, earn the high dividends for some income, after which NagaCorp should grow nicely from 2016 through 2020 as it absorbs more of the Macau junket market and expands.

This is pretty much what’s been happening with the stock since then, now trading at $5.22, with the jury still being out on 2016 through 2020 for reasons having to do with the spacetime continuum and such.  Even before that last word, I had said back in June 2014 that, “The time to buy Nagacorp…will be after China becomes a full blown crisis sometime in 2015/2016.”

A look at the chart since June 2014 pans this out, and shows why Nagacorp should not be chased but only bought on dips for income and the long term.