The government-run gaming monopoly in the Canadian province of Ontario is being slammed for vastly overestimating its revenue forecasts, particularly for its online gambling operations.

This week, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG) announced that its previously announced modernization program would boost annual revenue by C$889m by fiscal 2021-22. The figure represents a 30% decrease from previous projections that the reforms would provide an extra C$1.26b annually by 2017-18.

In 2015-16, OLG anted up C$2.2b (US $1.7b) to the provincial treasury, making it the single biggest non-tax contributor to government coffers. But while OLG’s latest contribution was undeniably significant, it was C$500m below the forecasts OLG made in 2012 when it embarked upon its program of modernization.

Last September, OLG scrapped plans to privatize management of its lottery operations, which reported sales of C$3.8b in 2015-16. OLG maintains that unspecified reforms will boost lottery profits by C$209m per year but Ontario’s auditor general released a report into OLG’s activities that questioned ‘the optimism of [OLG’s] growth projections.”