Countervailing forces are blurring the picture in Macau. The major casino stocks could go either way from here, though the picture should start to clear up a little bit by the beginning of May. As things stand now, it’s a gamble, as perhaps it should be. First, the bullish case.

The biggest piece of evidence the Macau bulls have on their side is the Macau money supply.

You can see here the obvious dip in the MOP supply from March 2014 until about February 2016. It may be hard to see zoomed out like this, but there was also a plateau from late 2007 until early 2009. These of course correspond to the two major Macau crashes in 2008-09 and 2014-16. Judging from this chart, the money supply in Macau is climbing strongly, which means the current boom in Macau stocks can in principle keep going.