Most punters and pundits agree that France is the probable winner of the EURO 2016 soccer tournament that kicks off Friday evening in Paris when the host nation entertains Romania. But, France isn’t necessarily the smart bet; in fact, France may be the riskiest ‘safe’ bet on the board.

The reality is that France’s – and every other nation’s – soccer fortune isn’t written in the stars, but in the stats, i.e. the economic stats. France enjoys home pitch advantage and, on paper, a very talented squad of players for Didier Deschamps to coach. Nevertheless, today’s release of the Democracy Institute’s EURO 2016 rankings suggests Les Bleus, currently the 16/5 favourite, are heavily over-wagered.

This is the 3rd edition of the Democracy Institute’s econometric soccer rankings. In 2010, ouranalysis of each World Cup nation’s level of economic freedom provided a reliable guide to their performance that year in South Africa. When successfully reprised at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, the DI rankingswere a popular tool among gamblers and investors.

For EURO 2016, the Democracy Institute hasanalyzed the competing nations according to the data provided by the “Index of Economic Freedom,” the Heritage Foundation’s annual publication measuring economic freedom in 178 countries. Good coaching, a talented squad, and some luck are necessary for victory in a major soccer tournament, but they are often insufficient to the task. When these necessary variables are synthesized with a weighted economic freedom variable, the subsequent DI rankings add some essential science to the art of soccer wagering.