The Stars Group rally is deserved, but don’t chase It

From Rational Group to Amaya to The Stars Group, the industry’s biggest poker company finally has a name that makes sense. A long term chart of it stock also makes a lot of sense, and tells us volumes (pun intended) about human emotion as it relates to trading activity.

Before Amaya bought Rational Group in June 2014, Amaya was trading below $10 a share. Then the unexpected leveraged buyout and shares increased 350% on low volume, which means that retail traders with relatively little capital were pushing shares higher on the excitement without institutional money confirming.

The buyout was risky and very lopsided. The financial health of what is now The Stars Group was not on sure footing and nobody knew if the merger would work out or not. While that uncertainty persisted, the parabola broke and shares fell back to where they were before the deal was announced, just below $10 a share. But as the new joint company got its act together and started growing and becoming more efficient, shares have retraced back to $20 and change. This time, on high volume, which hints that institutional money is now participating in the rally.

The dangerous, reactionary rally was just after the deal. Quickly burning, quickly exhausted, and shares fell back down on the same low volume. Then came the sustained trend. The technical lesson being that low volume rallies tend to be less sustainable, because only a handful of traders are willing to buy at elevated prices and they are mostly retail. To sustain a rally you need the institutional traders to get in and keep the price elevated. That’s what’s happening now to The Stars Group.